Author: Maksym Shylov

Group Practice Leader Food & Agriculture

Food Price Inflation in CEE and SEE Countries – Its Impact on Insurance and the Future

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According to the International Monetary Fund food and energy are the main drivers of today’s inflation. That is obvious to each of us as we pay more for both food and energy these days.

This article compares the food price inflation in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe where GrECo Group operates. How did these differences in prices come about and what are the consequences for insurance?  

How food price inflation is measured

The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization uses the Food Price Index (FFPI) to track and monitor price changes in international markets for key basic foodstuffs. The reference period from 2014 to 2016 serves as the FFPI base value, this being 100. For example, if in July 2005 the FFPI in Austria was 76.4, this means that the main basket of food products cost 23.6% less in July 2005 than the average basket in 2014-2016yy. If the FFPI, let’s say, in June 2022 was at 121.1, the food inflation was 21.1% compared to 2014-2016yy.

Food Supply Chain

Different rates of food price inflation in Europe

We analysed the food price indices in CEE/SEE countries, which are split into 3 groups:

  • EU countries using the Euro as an official currency
  • EU countries using their own national currency
  • Non-EU countries

The analysis shows that the increase in food prices in EU countries follows the same course, i.e. the dynamics from 2020 are very high compared to the previous 20 years (2000-2019yy). This proves that the economies of EU countries are interconnected. 
 
Looking at countries outside the EU, we see that prices have risen in different ways at different times. For example, an interesting fact about Ukraine is the sharp increase in prices in 2013-2014, which can be attributed to the destabilisation of the economic situation during the Maidan Revolution, followed by the first Russian occupation and the subsequent large devaluation of the local currency.
 
A more interesting trend can be seen if we take a closer look at the period 2020-2022, primarily related to COVID and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

  • Among the six Euro area countries we analysed, Austria showed the lowest FFPI increase and Lithuania the highest.
  • Among the five EU countries that use national currencies, the highest inflation was recorded in Hungary, and the lowest in the Czech Republic.
  • Among the four non-EU countries, Ukraine suffered a much higher FFPI than in the period 2014-2016. Serbia, however, is the most stable in this respect.

A look at increasing food prices during 2020-2022

The table below clearly illustrates the differences between countries. It allows for a better comparison of FFPI values at different points in time during recent periods. For example, the column 2022vs2020 shows the percentage increase in food prices on July 1, 2022 as compared to July 1, 2020.

table food prices

The table also shows that inflation in the period 2022-2022yy was twice as high as in the period 2020-2015yy in almost every country. Prices started to increase drastically as from the third and fourth quarter of 2021. We therefore believe that the root cause was the post-COVID food and energy supply chain crisis.

Why is food price inflation so high in 2020-2022?

One of the root causes of any inflation is the scarcity of goods, eithertheir total lack or their availability in only insufficient quantities. This happened in the post-COVID recovery phase, when deferred demand for energy resources collided with supply chain constraints. At the same time, in 2021, we witnessed a sharp increase in the prices of cereal and oilseed raw materials. We also saw the first forecasts of increasing food prices. Soon thereafter, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a new problem in the food supply chain, a problem that continues to this day.
 
Another cause of inflation is excess demand, be it due to the government printing extra money, the acceleration of the money multiplier, new demand created by GDP growth or due to the inflow of new foreign capital. For example, according to Forbes the consistent monetary stimulus on a massive scale, unprecedented since World War II, turned the flywheel even further in 2020-2022.
 
On top of that, the negative expectations of enterprises and consumers add even more fuel to the fire. Today, nobody is willing to take a risk by selling goods without hedging against the risk of higher production costs in the future. Already, manufacturers are increasing their prices in order to transfer the risk to their consumers. There is also the theory, that big corporations and monopolists (e.g. in the energy segment or food retail) merely squeeze out more profit by driving prices up. Therefore, it will be interesting to see what the final 2022 balance sheets and ESG reports will look like in 2023.

Impact of the inflation on the insurance markets

In our opinion, inflation impacts negatively on insurance consumption and insurance premiums. On the positive side, greater financial uncertainty and changes in the spending behaviour (increased share of spending on inflexible goods and utilities) make households and enterprises rethink their insurance spending.
 
To further curb price increases, central banks significantly raised base rates. Together with inflation expectations and the calculation of an additional risk premium for uncertainty, such actions lead to a significant increase in the cost of capital. This means that investors in the insurance industry are increasingly making outrageous demands.
 
Thus, we have already witnessed a lack of capacity following the first wave of investor capital outflow from international insurance markets. As a result, insurers are not only starting to optimise their portfolios, they are also becoming increasingly risk averse. Some of the conventional property risks are very difficult to renew and additional limits in e.g. the meat industry, in agricultural insurance, and in other sectors can hardly be obtained. Markets are thus hardening again.

What can we expect in the near future and what will save us from the abyss?

Food and energy supply chain constraints pushed up prices post-COVID. Aggressive government monetary policies, negative expectations and further supply chain disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the situation. This has affected the countries of the CEE/SEE region in different ways, yet what they have in common is that prices in 2021-2022 have soared at an unprecedented rate. The insurance market, in turn, is entering a phase of portfolio optimisation due to the growing lack of investor capital.
 
So, what does the future have in store for us?
 
A similar scale of inflation (as shown in the graph below) took place in the 1970s when price increases were associated with oil shocks in 1973 and in 1979-80. That said, prior to these shocks, monetary policy was focused on keeping interest rates low to maintain employment levels and pour more money into an economy that resembles ours today. Further policy tightening resulted in a deep economic crisis in the early 1980s.

food price index

However, there are two important differences between the current situation and the 1970s:

  • The magnitude of commodity price jumps today is smaller than in the 1970s.
  • A paradigm shift in monetary policy frameworks took place since the 1970s, i.e. central banks in advanced economies now have clear mandates for price stability, which is expressed as an explicit inflation target.

According to The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) “beyond the near term, inflation is expected to decline, but the experience of the 1970s suggests some material risks to this inflation outlook”. CEPR considers risks to be material if the following events do not occur: ”1. global production lines and logistics adjust, 2. inflation expectations are likely to remain well anchored over the medium term, 3. the structural forces that depressed inflation before the pandemic persist”.
 
In addition, we believe that increasing economic activity towards the reconstruction of Ukraine and new investments in technologies leading to the decarbonisation of economies will additionally inject economic growth, which will in turn, result in a stabilisation of prices.
 
Sources consulted:
https://www.fao.org/datalab/website/web/food-prices
https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/09/30/what-is-really-driving-inflation-today/ 
https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/CP
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/09/09/cotw-how-food-and-energy-are-driving-the-global-inflation-surge )
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/todays-inflation-and-great-inflation-1970s-similarities-and-differences

Maksym Shylov

Group Practice Leader
Food & Agriculture

T +48 22 39 33 211

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Supply Chain Risk Management in the Food and Agriculture Sector – Keeping Flexibility and Financial Resilience

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Supply Chain Risk Management in the Food and Agriculture Sector - Keeping Flexibility and Financial Resilience

One of the key questions nowadays is how to stay agile in an ever-changing supplier and customer environment? In other words: How to get the right product to the right customer at the right time in the right place while continuing to be profitable, environmentally and socially compliant?

COVID, the war in Ukraine, the gas crisis and more have exposed the fragility of many industries.  Our food supply chain is no exception. What does the future hold for us and are we ready to successfully face new challenges? The more immediate question we have to ask ourselves is: “How can we increase flexibility and financial resilience in an ever-changing economical and geopolitical environment?” Let’s take a closer look at this issue and how to better deal with it:

Sustainability in the Food Supply Chain

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations defines the food supply chain as consisting of all stakeholders who participate in the coordinated production and value-adding activities that are needed to make food products.

Food Supply Chain

Source of the chart: https://www.fao.org/3/ca8308en/ca8308en.pdf

The food supply chain covers agricultural upstream and downstream sectors from the supply of agricultural inputs (such as seeds, fertilisers, feeds, medicines or equipment) to production, post-harvest handling, processing, transportation, marketing, distribution, and retailing.  
 
A sustainable food supply chain:

  • should be profitable throughout all its stages (economic sustainability),
  • has broad-based benefits for society (social sustainability),
  • has a positive or neutral impact on the natural environment (environmental sustainability).

Spotlight on Supply Chain Disruption Risk Management

The recent agitation in societies caused by COVID-19, Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, the gas crises, climate change, etc., have prompted governments and corporations to pay more attention to supply chain disruption risk management. This is due to its obvious negative consequences, such as loss of net profit and increased costs for restoring supplies to normal.

The complexity of the supply chain requires that risks be grouped as follows:

  • Supply Risks: Impacts inbound supply, implying that a supply chain cannot meet the demand in terms of quantity and quality of parts and finished goods (supply disruption).  
  • Demand Risks: Impacts elements of the outbound supply chain where the extent or the fluctuation of the demand is unexpected (demand disruption).  
  • Operational Risks: Impacts elements within a supply chain, impairing its ability to supply services, parts, or finished goods within the standard requirements of time, cost, and quality. Transportation disruptions are one of the most considerable operational risks.
Risk in global supply chains

Source of the chart:  https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter9/transportation-and-disasters/supply-chain-risks/

In order to effectively manage the risk of disruptions in the supply chain, special risk management procedures should be implemented in companies:

Step 1: Assess the risks (suppliers, buyers, weather-related events, foreign economic instability, raw material shortages, blackouts, military actions, actions of the government, social unrest, etc.)

Step 2: Quantify the risks (likelihood and severity, risk mapping)

Step 3:  Build a response plan to contingencies (“If X happens, then we will respond with Y.”) and define roles and responsibilities in this action plan.

Step 4: Develop a supply chain continuity plan (determine critical and major suppliers and logistics routes, qualify alternative suppliers and shipments)

Step 5: Further monitor supply chain risks, carry out supply chain continuity plan modifications and reporting

The vessel, blocking the Suez Canal in 2021

The vessel, blocking the Suez Canal in 2021

Stay Agile in the Food Supply Chain   

One of the key questions nowadays is how to stay agile in an ever-changing supplier and customer environment? In other words: How to get the right product to the right customer at the right time in the right place while continuing to be profitable, environmentally and socially compliant?

Here are some practical key points and ideas for increasing the flexibility of the food supply chains:

  • Go digital wherever possible: collect, process and display in-time data
  • Ensure optimum levels of visibility and transparency across the organization by providing more information to optimise operations 
  • Automate the less time-consuming manual processes
  • Hold extra inventory
  • Make shorter-term plans 
  • Reduce the variety of products
  • Switch to new packaging – smart packaging, large multi-serving formats, modular packaging solutions
  • Buy from domestic or local suppliers where possible to increase the ability to transport goods in an efficient and cost-effective manner
  • Establish and foster solid relationships with strategic suppliers.

Insurance – Key Element to Counteract Food Supply Chain Disruptions  

Insurance is a tool that limits financial losses when a risk has become reality and has disrupted the supply chain, resulting in a loss of net profit, an increase in its mitigation costs and contractual penalties.
 
As a rule, standard property insurance covers business interruptions, caused by physical damage to the enterprise or physical damage to its suppliers or buyers (extended coverage).   In any case, it should also contain an “on-site element”, i.e. the damage should arise at the site of the party specified in the insurance contract.
 
In order to partially fill this gap, clients are advised to consider investing in special tailor-made solutions, such as combined stock-throughput and trade disruption coverage or parametric insurance.
 
Combined stock-throughput and trade disruption covers the entire value chain: from the delivery of goods from suppliers, through their processing at the insured party’s premises, to their delivery to buyers, including both transit and storage periods. A stock-throughput placement provides compensation for material damage to the transported or stored property.
 
The additional trade disruption insurance covers loss of net profit, increased expenses and contractual penalties resulting from direct damage to property and unexpected events that impacted on logistics and/or happened to goods along the way (fire, lightning or explosion, natural disasters, blockage of waterways, harbours, airport, roads or railways; breakdown of a vessel; confiscation, expropriation, deprivation, embargoes; sanctions; political interference; strikes, riots and civil commotion, terrorism border closures; or other triggers subject to the agreement of underwriters). 
 
Parametric insurance insures a specific weather or statistical parameter, which should correlate well with the quantity or quality of the goods one buys or sells. For example, to produce a planned amount of vegetable oil, an oil-crushing plant needs seeds to be processed. The factory relies on farmers who grow such crops. In the event of a drought, there will be a shortage of harvested seeds, which, in turn, results in a reduced production of vegetable oil. To mitigate and balance such losses, the oil crushing plant will be insured against soil moisture deficiency (drought index) or an area yield index. The insurance contract is triggered when the insured index reaches a certain value.

Maksym Shylov

Group Practice Leader
Food & Agriculture

T +48 22 39 33 211

Chojnacki Jacek

Jacek Chojnacki

Dyrektor Regionu Food & Agri
Broker Ubezpieczeniowy

T  +48 609 600 960

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Webinar “Cyber risks in Food & Agri industry”

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Cyber risks in agriculture

In our recent webinar “Cyber risks in Food & Agri industry” we shared information about the role of cyber insurance, case study examples of claims handling and Security Operation Center (SOC) as a service.

The food and agriculture industry has adopted the use of smart technology, such as automated farming techniques or automated high-bay warehouses. In addition, the industry is highly dependent on automation to keep prices low and distribution running smoothly. With all the benefits of digitalization, it is important to address the cyber exposures that come with this technology reliance.

In our recent webinar “Cyber risks in Food & Agri industry” we shared information about the role of cyber insurance, case study examples of claims handling and Security Operation Center (SOC) as a service. With more than 70 internal and external participants, we dived into the topics of cyber risks in the food and agriculture industry with a desire to show the importance of proper cyber insurance solutions for clients in this industry.

Speakers included Stephan Eberlein, GrECo Group Practice Leader in Liability & Financial Lines, Rob Lloyd, Director ASL, and Alexandra Rusnakova, Cyber security analyst at AXENTA CyberSOC.

You can find the full webinar recording on our Youtube profile.

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Maksym Shylov

Group Practice Leader
Food & Agriculture

T +48 22 39 33 211

Continue reading “Webinar “Cyber risks in Food & Agri industry””

How bad was drought this year in your region and how much insurance would help to protect against losses?

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How dry has it been this year in your region and how much insurance would help to protect against losses?

How dry has it been this year in your region and how much insurance would help to protect against losses? Our GrECo Soil Moisture Deficit Monitor can provide the answer about 10 850 locations in Central and Eastern Europe!

2022 breaks all records in some parts of Europe, being one of the driest and hottest years! The dynamics of soil moisture in dry 2022 compared to 2021 can be clearly seen in the video below.

The browner the area in the chart above remains for a significant time (more than 30 days), the more hostile the drought is.

Drought negative outcomes

Such a big drought leads to many negative consequences in many industries, especially in agriculture, energy, logistics, and forestry. For example:

  • Expected decrease of corn yield in Hungary (30% more)
  • Massive livestock death in Italy;
  • Big shortage of water in the UK, France, Spain and Portugal;
  • Hydropower generation, which relies on water to produce electricity, has fallen by 44% in Spain, and 20% overall; 
  • Some nuclear plants in France have had to reduce output as the rivers have been too low and warm to cool the plants;
  • River Rhine’s water level fell so much that shipping was affected;
  • Low water levels in the Danube River exposed the wrecks of dozens of German warships, sunk in late 1944 to block passage to the Soviets;
  • In 2022 as of today, there is 735 000 ha of burnt forest in EU countries or currently under fire, which is already 2.3 times more comparing the annual average for 2006-2021! How much Europe is burning at the moment you can see in the charts below.
Fire danger forecast
Percentage of burned areas

Why is drought on the rise?

This is believed to be the result of a global warming trend that is due to intense human activity, especially in the last 50 years. We witness the increase in greenhouse gas in the atmosphere (more than 30% compared to the 1950s) and deforestation for agriculture (40% of forests were lost). It led to the shift in the average temperature by 1°C compared to the pre-industrial era, and thus resulted in large changes in the weather produced by ocean streams. This is evidenced by more extreme temperatures, heat waves, higher wind speeds, more hail, and uneven distribution throughout the season leading to no rain when plants need it or, vice versa, heavy destructive rains and floods.

How to quantify the severity of a drought event?

To quantify and visualize it, we use soil moisture data set from ‘ERA5 hourly data at single levels from 1959 to present’, provided by the European Space Agency. The data is stored in 25 x 25 km grids as in the picture below.

Soil moisture data set

We have developed a monitor tool that clients can use to get calculations from us by sending individual requests. Once we identify your location in CEE/SEE region from the drop-down list, a simple Excel tool will identify the ERA5 grid and extract data for further analysis and calculations.

Examples from several places are as follow.

Debrecen data
Extent of soil moisture deficit
Bratislava data
Extent of soil moisture deficit

As we see from the charts above, in areas around Debrecen and Bratislava, the 2022 year was the worst compared to the last 30 years, at least. For example, in Debrecen, it was 45.8% dryer than the average year in this region. The farmers would get insurance compensation in the amount of 25% of crop value if they signed a parametric drought insurance policy.

Why is the satellite soil moisture index the best parameter to insure drought?

  • Direct factor, impacting crop development/quantity for food processing
  • Combination of rain, temperature, wind, crop density, soil
  • Parameter independent of the parties to the insurance contract
  • Its value can be double-checked by the farmer/food processor
  • No field inspections are required
  • No paperwork to indemnify the loss
  • Fast insurance pay-out

Sources:
https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/cop26-agricultural-expansion-drives-almost-90-percent-of-global-deforestation/en
https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=form
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/08/drought-impacts-europe-unexpected/
https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/effis_current_situation/
https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/effis.statistics/estimates

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Maksym Shylov

Group Practice Leader
Food & Agriculture

T +48 22 39 33 211

Continue reading “How bad was drought this year in your region and how much insurance would help to protect against losses?”

How to feed the world and save the planet?

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Food insecurity and Food insurance

Tackling the challenge of feeding the world, while solving environmental problems and preventing further global warming is not an easy task. The latter implies curbing and reducing the intensification of agriculture.

Half of the world’s GDP is tied to nature, be it food production or water supplies. The United Nations estimates that 840 million people will be affected by hunger by 2030. How can we feed the 7.9 billion people without exceeding the limits of our planet?

Climate change is just as evident. The intensification of agriculture, which has resulted in high nitrogen emissions, exacerbates the problem. It accounts for nearly 11% of the greenhouse gas emissions in the world. Particularly concerning are nitrous oxide emissions from over-fertilization of land, which is 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide, causing global warming.

Tackling the challenge of feeding the world, while solving environmental problems and preventing further global warming is not an easy task. The latter implies curbing and reducing the intensification of agriculture.
Curbing agriculture may lead to a reduction of land used for agricultural purposes, less protection of crops, and, as a result, less crop production. At the same time, this spurs outside-the-box thinking to find a compromise that could solve the dilemma. New ways of more efficient agriculture, producing healthier pesticide-free products in smaller areas well protected from production risks (pests, diseases, natural disasters, etc.) could be the solution.

Preserving nature

The EU Green Deal developed in 2020 is a roadmap to more sustainable economies. It sets new targets for achieving greener agriculture over the next ten years by:

  • reducing the use of chemical and more hazardous pesticides by 50%,
  • reducing nutrient losses by at least 50%,
  • reducing fertilizer use by at least 20%, and
  • reducing the sale of antimicrobials for farmed animals and in aquaculture by 50%
  • helping the EU organic farming grow, aiming at 25% of total farmland by 2030.

New technologies for global problems

The development of digital technologies, precision farming and the use of artificial intelligence can help humankind to some extent to produce sufficient food while conserving natural resources. For example, artificial intelligence and nanotechnology can improve crop and soil yields while maintaining soil health and protecting the quality of the environment.

New risks in the transformation of the food and agriculture sector

How can we help farmers cope with crises while still providing a fair and reliable income base? How does the food industry adapt production and distribution processes to meet challenges of both climate change and government efforts aiming at making agriculture more environmentally friendly? Without a doubt, the food and agriculture sector is subject to changes and transformations. However, these very same changes also bring about new risks. The time has come to think ahead, identify risks, and prevent and reduce potential losses.

Management more exposed to claims under new rules

Increasingly, management decisions are guided by compliance with new rules, primarily related to preserving the environment and maintaining public health, i.e. in line with the EU Green Deal. As a result, the insurance industry will have to deal with potential new claims made against directors, government officers, shareholders and other stakeholders.

More cyber risks in the food and agriculture sector

More reliance on digitization means increased cyber threats. Modern and fully automated IT farms, for example, may suffer from business interruption and losses caused by cyber-attacks, software failures or human error.

Supply chain sustainability

Climate change creates new challenges for farmers and the food industry and may result in catastrophic losses.
It is prudent to plan and consider alternative resources, increased costs due to additional transport requirements or even a limited supply. In addition, one should not lose sight of the new risks of a pandemic. These can be substantial, as the COVID-19 crisis has shown since 2019. Various business sectors registered a serious shift in the structure of demand and experienced restricted labour mobility. Personnel in the health sector were hard hit, timely availability of basic resources was a challenge for farmers and the food sector, and different channel infrastructure was built to ensure food delivery. New biosafety requirements were set up, delays and disruptions in transport and logistics services became the order of the day, and the costs of international freight transport surged. Many of these consequences continue to affect businesses and human lives.

Business interruption coverage in the spotlight 

The insurance industry is set to increasingly focus on business interruption products.

Nowadays, livestock insurers opt for gross profit loss insurance rather than animal value insurance. At the same time, every hectare of land will have a higher value. Because they are subject to risks associated with reductions in inland areas, there is an increase in the industry capital intensity and its digitization. 

Moving from conventional to organic farming despite higher production risks

The sustainable yield performance of organic farming is still questionable. Historically, conventional agriculture provided better-guaranteed protection of yields against adverse perils. The rapid transformation of many areas from conventional to organic farming entails additional yield production risks. These should be taken into account and handled accordingly.  

Modification of agricultural resources and new farming methods leads to new liability risks

New crop varieties, chemicals and fertilizers will be created because of the increasing need to fight hunger and save the planet. Any modifications involve unknown risk factors for property damage and personal injury and, therefore, may lead to additional claims and costs of product recalls. As an example, there are specific concerns and doubts about the effects of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) on humans.

Several incidents cast a shadow on the safety of GMOs and, importantly, on the ability to control the spread of these organisms in food production and distribution networks, not to mention the environment in general. 

Increased risks due to a lack of water

Water, the world’s most precious resource, also plays a crucial role in solving agricultural problems. Water is one of the crucial factors in irrigation facilities deployment as more rainfed lands need to be irrigated due to desertification, resulting from global warming. Unfortunately, many natural water sources have also become unreliable, more polluted, or both.

PPP in agricultural insurance will gain in importance

Stepping up public-private partnerships by introducing new agricultural insurance products to better protect farmers against catastrophic risks, such as drought and epizootic diseases, will help improve the agricultural sector’s financial sustainability. Governments will be challenged to find ways to encourage farmers to buy more agricultural insurance. They may have to introduce compulsory baseline production insurance, tie prerequisite insurance policies to other government support, develop other measures to prevent the risk of crop and animal loss, and help farmers to define effective mechanisms to reduce losses. 

Insurance specialization will intensify

The insurance sector is undergoing a significant change. Already, we are experiencing increasing digitization, ready-made basic solutions and artificial intelligence, which will ultimately automate the communication between the client and the insurer. However, the food and agriculture sector will continue to require highly professional advice from insurance experts who understand the industry, speak a common language, and can develop and tailor the right solutions.

In response to the increasing impact of climate change, the spread of epizootic diseases and the new impact of pandemic risks to humans, GrECo Holding has begun to offer new risk management programmes for clients active in food and agriculture sector.  


This article is a part of our Foodprint publication focusing on issues and risks facing the Food & Agriculture industry. Read the publication and learn more about insurance solutions and the growing importance of risk management and alternative solutions like parametric insurance.

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Maksym Shylov

Group Practice Leader
Food & Agriculture

T +48 22 39 33 211

Continue reading “How to feed the world and save the planet?”

Feed the planet: FOODprint 2022

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Couple reading FOODprint

Managing the risks in Food & Agriculture is particularly important as any business activities in this industry – from farmers, breeders and producers to suppliers, supermarkets, and restaurants – help maintain stability in our society. Their financial resilience is also key to the supply, processing, distribution, and protection of food.

In our new publication FOODprint, we address a variety of topics and insurance solutions and also highlight the growing importance of risk management and alternative solutions like parametric insurance.

Some of the highlights in this edition of the FOODprint include:

  • Epizootics are a global problem: Learn about the way to protect against risks and minimize losses for meat farmers and processors;
  • International vs Local Insurance: Find out how do Food & Agriculture companies insure their plants abroad;
  • How to insure the uninsurable – Take a look at practical applications of Parametric insurance;
  • In the ocean of uncertanity: Choosing the correct risk management strategy in Food & Agriculture is hard. Read about how we approach risk management.
Read the FOODprint 2022

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Maksym Shylov

Group Practice Leader
Food & Agriculture

T +48 22 39 33 211

Continue reading “Feed the planet: FOODprint 2022”

Crime Insurance: Insure Your Food & Agriculture Company

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Secrets about Crime Insurance

Crime Insurance provides coverage for events not covered by most property or liability insurance policies.

Different Crime Insurance Clauses

There are several ways that businesses could be exposed to crime, both from within the organisation as a result of employee infidelity and from third parties. Crime Insurance provides coverage for events not covered by most property or liability insurance policies:

  • Clause 1 – Employee Infidelity: This clause protects the company from dishonest and fraudulent acts of the employees. This is the major source of all crimes committed against companies worldwide. The clause is very broad and covers almost any crime committed by an employee, whether alone or in collusion with others (both other employees and third parties such as crime gangs) which causes a loss to the company.
  •  Clauses 2 & 3 – Premises and Transit: This is the physical and stock cover for the company and will cover burglary and armed robbery by third parties. It can cover everything from machinery to stock to cash on-premises and has the benefit of covering valuables when in transit as well. Whilst not as effective as a cargo policy, this can provide contingent cover where a third party has a loss, and their insurance does not act.
  • Clauses 4-6 – Forgery and Counterfeiting: These clauses cover the forgery of documents holding a real value and are relied upon by the client for processing cash settlements or disbursement of cash.
  • Clause 7 – Damage due to any of the above clauses: If there is damage to any property as a result of a theft or robbery, then this can be added to the claim. A typical loss here is the destruction of a safe.
  • Additional extension on Computer Crime and Telephonic Crime: This covers the loss to the company by use of a computer or telephone and can have a very broad scope. It is in effect the cover for robbery or theft using a computer rather than a weapon or forced entry. These types of loss are rising due to the less severe penalties for being caught and the fact that they can be carried out remotely, thus lessening the chance of being caught. 

Nature of the Product to be Stolen

As with most businesses, there is a specific risk from the behaviour of employees and some of the causes are listed below. With Agribusiness there is the added threat that they deal in the most stolen goods worldwide accepting cash. There is a simple way of calculating the desirability of products and food that tends to meet all of the definitions to a high degree.

When looking at the product we must consider three themes and if the answer is yes to all three then it is an at-risk product:

  • Desirability – Do people want/need the product?
  • Portability – Is it easy to steal, especially in large volumes?
  • Saleability – Is it easy to sell, would it attract attention to the seller doing s

For example, in Poultry business we can see the following:

  • Desirability – Chicken is the most widely bought meat worldwide and so we can see that there is a demand for chicken products. 
  • Portability – Due to the nature and volume of sales it is surprisingly easy to steal poultry. A faked invoice or paying off the warehousemen or guards on the gates of the processing plant will allow a thief to drive right up to the plant and collect their haul.  
  • Saleability – People want poultry products, and whilst cheap poultry will raise a few eyebrows, it is unlikely that people will turn down the opportunity for cheap food. Selling on a market stall at a food market or arranging with a retailer to buy the products will make this easier, and the police are less likely to question the sale of chicken in this environment. 

So we can see that the products are at real risk, employees working hand in hand with outside groups can cause large losses very quickly here. In the agriculture sector, we have seen numerous large losses worldwide, and usually in basic food such as milk, meat, bread and cereals rather than finished products.

Typical Crime Losses for Food & Agriculture

There are multiple different potential crime losses for Food & Agriculture companies.

  • Addiction Issues  – These individuals start not wanting to be frauds but rapidly turn into a problem for the employee. Typically, they will have a drug, alcohol or gambling issue and will ‘borrow’ money to rectify an immediate situation, always to pay the money back. Usually, the problem spirals out of control and they start taking more and more to fix the problem until they finally realise that they cannot do it and flee. Whilst not the largest losses they can reach some big figures and 1 Mio. EUR is not uncommon, although figures in the hundreds of thousands are more likely.
  • Blackmail   – A member of staff is found in a compromising situation and criminals find out. They use this to force the employee to carry out some tasks to either enable them to access the employer (electronically or physically) or to simply force them to steal themselves. It can be anyone in a company, and losses can be from around 50,000 EUR for a straightforward taking of cash from the safe to millions of Euros from granting access to the computer systems. We see simple ideas such as leaving a door open to targeted blackmail on employees who hold passcodes for payments etc. in this example.
  • Invoice Fraud  – A member of staff who has control of tendering or contracts will conspire with a supplier to inflate invoices. Usually, they will split the difference between the ‘real’ price and the stated price. This will mean that either poor quality services are supplied or overcharged services with reasonable quality are given. This can very quickly add up, and if the staff member is allowed a level of autonomy in this area it can be hard to detect as they will often receive fake quotes to cover the fraud.
  • Delivery Fraud – This often works for hand in hand with either blackmail or general corruption. A gang will find a suitable member of staff who has access to warehouses or other storage facilities and find a way to get them to aid them in their plans. This can be through a simple cut of the profits (Improper Financial Gain) or blackmail. Either way, the staff member will grant them access to the facility through either forged paperwork or being there themselves to open the door. Whole lorry loads of goods can be taken, and losses can mount up quickly. Only when the goods are not paid for, the loss is discovered, which can be some time down the line. Achieving security against this can be difficult as the papers to release the goods will be official and unlikely to be queried at the gate.
  • Bookkeeping Fraud – A simple fraud that involves transfers of money, payments and general accounts of the client. No real sophistication to it – just plain theft. 
  • Social Engineering / Fake Presidents – These are two differing frauds but have the same method at their heart. Both rely on a level of trust either built up over time or gained by electronic means. 

    Social Engineering can take the form of regular phone calls building up a rapport, targeted emails (finding out the hobbies of a member of staff and then sending them links – Spear Phishing), or even working on an out-of-work friendship which then turns into a request for help. All of these come under the Social Engineering banner. Once the trust is established, there will be a request to transfer funds, either for a legitimate-looking reason or for help to the person conducting the fraud. Once the money is transferred, the contact usually ceases immediately.
     Fake Presidents is where a call is made seemingly from the CEO or CFO, usually on a Friday afternoon, requesting an urgent fund transfer. Usually, the reason is that if the transfer does not go ahead, a deal will fall through harming the company. The call will seem to come from the senior staff members but will be the criminals. They can hack phone systems to present the phone number of the person they are impersonating, use email addresses which are one letter different to the person etc. A less sophisticated version is hijacking emails and changing bank details at the last minute, in a deal to the fraudster’s account. 

Conclusion about Crime Insurance in Food & Agriculture

As we can see from the described above cases, “non-tangible damage” (financial) losses, caused by infidelity of employees or third-party criminals, can bring quite a significant gap in the balance sheet of any Food & Agriculture enterprise. On the other hand, such losses are not covered by a standard property damage/business interruption insurance contract. Additional commercial crime insurance policies are recommended. The indemnity limit of 1 million EUR costs starts from 50,000 EUR, as a rule, with the same amount of deductible.

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Brian Alexander, GrECo Group Practice Leader Financial Institutions

Brian Alexander

Group Practice Leader Financial Institutions

T +43 5 04 04 342

Shylov Maksym, GrECo Practice Leader Food & Agriculture

Maksym Shylov

Group Practice Leader
Food & Agriculture

T +48 22 39 33 211

Continue reading “Crime Insurance: Insure Your Food & Agriculture Company”

Unfreezing the confidence in the future

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Unfreezing the confidence in the future GrECo Group Specialist Risk Management Insurance

Over the past 20 years, spring frost events have become increasingly destructive to the fruit and berry production in the CEE region. We decided to take a closer look at this risk and briefly describe the current situation with insurance solutions for this risk for horticulture.

Frost can be different

Low temperatures below the critical frost tolerance level are among the most important causes of yield loss in fruit orchards. There are several phenomena of low temperatures, such as frost and freeze.

These terms are often used interchangeably but refer to two different weather events. The term freeze is normally used to describe an invasion of a large, very cold air mass. This event is commonly called an advective or wind-borne freeze. Wind speeds during an advective freeze are usually more than 8 km/h (5 mph) and an additional wind speed of 5 km/h results in an additional temperature drop of 1 degree. Clouds are commonly present during the event and the air is usually quite dry (low dew points). Freeze protection systems are usually of limited value during this type of severe freeze.

A radiational frost, also called a radiational freeze, typically occurs when winds are calm (usually 0 to 5 km/h) and skies are clear. Under such conditions, an inversion (i.e. deviation of temperatures in ground and upper height) may form because of rapid radiational cooling at the surface.

Most people think of frosts as frozen moisture on plant surfaces. However, there are two types of frosts: a hoar or black frost and a white frost. Visible frost (forms small crystals) occurs when atmospheric moisture freezes on plants and other surfaces. Dew (free water) forms when air temperature drops below the dew point temperature. If temperatures continue dropping on cold nights, this dew may freeze (forms frost) by sunrise. When the air temperature is below the freezing point of water, ice crystals rather than dew forms and the frost is called white frost.

The temperature at which this occurs is called the frost point. When the dew point temperature is below the freezing temperature of the air, neither frost nor dew forms. Such a condition is called black frost. The development of frost depends on the dew point or frost point of the air. And the drier the air, the lower the dew point.

Temperature distributions are uneven even on farm level

When it comes to temperatures, not all farming sites are equal, even when located in the same general area. There are numerous factors that can affect minimum temperatures during freeze events.

Chart. Example of different temperature distribution on vineyard. Data source

For example, temperature differences in hilly terrain are quite common on cold nights. As air near the surface is cooled on radiational frost nights, it becomes denser and flows downhill to lower areas where it collects.

Within a given area of a farming region, the most elevated sites tend to be the warmest during freeze events. The trees on northern slopes are much more and severely damaged by the extremely cold and dry winds during advective winter/spring freeze events. Soil characteristics can exert a microclimate effect.

Moreover, the experience has clearly shown that orchards may become active a little earlier in late winter on heavier, clay type soils and/or darker coloured soils (such as reds and blacks) than on lighter coloured, sandy soils. Although the latter tends to warm up faster, but they reflect more heat during the day (trap less heat) and lose it faster during the night.

Human-induced impacts can also be significant. For example, large areas of paved roads, such as interstate highways release substantial heat on cold nights, and this combined with heat released by vehicles and air currents created by traffic, can sometimes provide a beneficial effect to several rows of trees located close to such highways.

Damage to fruit & berry yields, caused by low temperatures

Damage to floral structures may take many forms. Frost on flowers or fruit does not kill the tissue, but it can scar the skin of the fruit and possibly damage the flesh. The internal freezing of tissue of buds, flowers and fruits is what causes serious damage or death of the floral parts. When small floral structures such as flowers or fruits freeze, they may take on several forms of damage. Severe temperatures usually destroy the entire buds, flowers or ovules (immature seed) and ovaries comprising small fruits resulting in rapid abscission of the structure.

Damages from freezes depend on the development stage of the fruit crop. For example, apple trees, during the dormancy period, partial damage of flower buds may be possible, if the air temperature drops to -25 ⁰C, complete damage, if the air temperature drops to -35 ⁰C. The warm December phenomena keeping trees still vegetating creates big trouble for further winter frost tolerance for some types of berries and fruit trees.

Chart. Trend, that witnesses the second half of December is getting warmer and warmer in the South-Eastern part of Poland. Data source: GrECo Group analysis

After resumption of the vegetation temperature at which ground frosts lead to partial damage to apple trees is much higher, e.g. at full blossom stage is -2.9 ⁰C leading to partial loss and -4.7 leading to full loss.

Generally, the crop sensitivity to freezing temperature increases from first bloom to small-fruit stages, and this is when a crop is most likely to be damaged. Sensitivity is also higher when warm weather has preceded a freeze night than if the cold temperatures preceded the freeze.

Insurance against spring frost

Risk prevention measures that lead to the heating of the orchard or vineyard environment (propane heaters, wind machines, irrigation above and below trees, smoke, helicopters, etc.) are sometimes not accessible to farmers in time or do not function properly or fully under certain weather conditions. Therefore, the insurance policy still remains the final frontier to compensate financial outcomes, when frost impact mitigation measures do not work in full.

On the other hand, despite the fact that the government subsidizes crop insurance, such protection tools for fruit and berry crops are not accessible for farmers in many CEE countries. It is explained merely by two main reasons. Firstly, insurers are very cautious about such types of farming, as underwriters and loss adjusters are not well experienced in this area, hence, more focused on more understandable and basic field crops. Secondly, historical big losses and several bad years in a row have made insurance companies to reconsider crop insurance conditions by imposing higher deductibles, increasing insurance rates and bringing stricter underwriting and loss adjustment criterion (e.g. covering only late spring frosts in May).

In our view, stronger public-private partnership in agriculture should be needed, such as, educational horticulture programmes for insurance companies, participation of the government in reinsurance schemes, creating greater product awareness in the market through rural associations, linking with other types of financial support, etc., to regain insurers’ confidence in underwriting this type of risk as a sustainable and profitable business in the long term. In its turn, it will make insurance products more accessible and affordable to the segment of horticulture.

Parametric insurance as an alternative frost risk transfer

The parametric (index) spring frost insurance is an innovative way to financially protect owners of orchards, vineyards and fruit/berry processors against the consequences of bad frost years. In most cases, the parametric policy is offered as the only possible way to cover the risk, which is non-insured by a standard crop insurance policy.

With parametric insurance against frost, the event is insured if the minimum temperature within the risk period is below a certain temperature.

As long as such a minimal temperature condition occurs, the farmer gets the specified amount of insurance indemnity depending on the value of the actual temperature.

Despite advantages of parametric solutions, such as transparency, less paperwork and simplicity of insurance compensations, the insurance market faces the big challenges of basis risk and availability of suitable weather data to insure frosts.

Basis risk in parametric (index) insurance means when the index measurements do not match an individual insured’s actual losses. There are two major sources of basis risk in index insurance. One source of basis risk stems from a poorly designed model and the other from geographical elements.

The good frost parametric model should be based on accurate on-site weather data and consider at least, the fruit/berry development stage and the right frost tolerance parameters for specific types and varieties of crops. Additional factors like windspeed, temperature dewpoint and warm preceding days can be also considered in order to enforce the model. However, regardless of the final perfect model, the basis risk cannot be eliminated.

Conclusion

Frost is a big challenge to the resilience of the horticulture supply chain. There are ways to mitigate partially its impact on yields and compensate financial losses thanks to crop and parametric insurance. On the other hand, a lot of work should be done by professional agricultural insurance experts to design the robust insurance scheme, suitable to the farmer’s and fruit/berry processor’s needs.

Used data sources:
Frzweather
Fao.org
Fao.org
Index Insurance Forum

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Maksym Shylov

Group Practice Leader
Food & Agriculture

T +48 22 39 33 211

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Knock on wood

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Interesting facts about forests, the risks associated with them, and a little about how to insure them

Forestry insurance is still undervalued but can be a really good tool to reduce losses in the wood-processing supply chain. This year, it has become relevant especially for tourism in some countries where wildfires have created activity restrictions in specific areas.

Forest world

It is estimated that nearly 1/3 of the global population depends on forest goods and services for livelihoods, food security and nutrition. Tree stands outside forests contribute to the four dimensions of food security (i.e. availability, access, utilization and stability) by providing income, employment, energy, ecosystem services and nutritious foods.

Globally, about 1.15 billion ha of forest are managed primarily to produce wood and non-wood forest products. In addition, 749 million ha are designated for multiple use, which often include the production. Forestry is an integral part of the wood-processing industry. There is less and less natural forest on earth. On the other hand, the growing new plantations are developing very well. Many big wood-processing companies started doing vertical integration of their traditional facilities with forestry in order not to be fully dependent on external suppliers.

Source: Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020 – Key findings. Rome: FAO. 2020.

Source: Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020 – Key findings. Rome: FAO. 2020.

The area of naturally regenerating forests has decreased since 1990 (at a declining rate of loss), but the area of planted forests has increased by 123 million ha.

Forests cover nearly 1/3 of land globally. That is 4.06 billion hectares. In other words, there is around 0.52 ha forest for every person on the planet. More than half (54%) of the world’s forests are in just five countries: the Russian Federation, Brazil, Canada, the United States of America and China. 93% of the world’s forest area consists of naturally regenerating forests and 7% is planted.

Source: Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020 – Key findings. Rome: FAO. 2020.

More and more damage to forests

Forests face many disturbances that can adversely affect their health and vitality and reduce their ability to provide a full range of goods and ecosystem services. For example, about 98 million ha of forest were affected by fires in 2015. Insects, diseases and severe weather events damaged about 40 million ha of forests in 2015, mainly in the temperate and boreal domains.

The world’s climate is changing. Increased temperatures and levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide as well as changes in precipitation and in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are just some of the consequences. These changes are having a remarkable impact on the world’s forests and the forestry sector, e.g. through longer growing seasons, shifting ranges of insect pests and an increase of forest fires.
For example, in 2019 in Europe and MENA regions fires of greater than 30ha were observed in 40 countries and a total burnt area of 789 730 ha was mapped, which is nearly four times more than in 2018.

More and more damage to forests

  • In 2020, Siberia experienced a record-breaking heat in early summer, up to 38°C, and 14°C above normal; this exceptional climate situation has increased fire activity north of the Arctic Circle.
  • In July 2018 in Greece, several fires started around Athens during high fire danger conditions (i.e., hot, dry, windy weather). With flames reaching 30 meters high, fires spread fast and reached settlements, taking the population by surprise. 100 people died, 1650 homes were destroyed, and nearly 1,500 hectares were burnt.
  • In 2017, lightning-caused fires sparked in Portugal during severe fire danger conditions, burning over 500,000 hectares. 120 people died, many trapped in their cars while trying to drive away from the fast-spreading fires.
  • In 2018, unusually warm and dry conditions favoured the spread of fire across Scandinavia. Sweden was particularly impacted, with 25,000 hectares burned, mostly forests, in a country where timber is major source of revenue, and between 300-500 people were evacuated
  • In 2020, wildfires in the exclusion zone of Chernobyl in Ukraine, burned nearly 50,000 hectares.
  • In Poland in 2020, during prolonged drought conditions, human-caused fires spread through the Biebrza National Park, the largest protected area in the country. Fires burned nearly 6,000 hectares, or 10% of the park, which is home to exceptional biodiversity.

    The latest data on massive fires in 2021 can be summarized in the graphic below.
Source: Wildfires ravaging forestlands in many parts of globe

Source: Wildfires ravaging forestlands in many parts of globe

Stormy seasons
Climate change is not only associated with dry days and high temperatures, but also with more catastrophic wind speeds. The main losses are therefore damage to timber, pulp and logging, restoration costs and the loss of production capacity on forest land.

Source: Biggest windthrow volumes

There are various scenarios of damage after the storm:

  • Trees that are completely overturned but with part of their root system still in the ground may survive for a considerable period – little loss.
  • Trees that are partly overturned and are left leaning will continue to grow but may produce significant quantities of reaction wood in subsequent years.
  • The most harmful is breakage of wood <10 m. Stem breakage is more common on frozen soils or sites with deeper soil, and therefore better anchorage, especially forest brown soils or deep littoral soils.
  • If the degree of damage is less than 10%, no immediate management action may be required; if it is 10-30%, removal of the damaged wood must begin before it is damaged; and if the degree of damage is 30-40%, foresters usually clear the entire site.

Secondary losses resulted by storms:

  • Hail may cause big losses in nurseries and during the period immediately after planting out in the plantation; one consequence is a temporary impairment of growth;
  • Snow – the weight of snow has produced few claims in the past;
  • Ice is more devastating than snow weight; rare but can be widespread (e.g. Eastern Canada 1999);
  • Flood – Flood risk depends on location (floodplains) and vulnerability to water intrusion.

Forestry insurance

As for insurance, 2/3 of forests are insured under property policies, 1/3 of forests are insured under forest policies. The premium volume is estimated at around USD 150 million. The insurance cover is about 10% of all plantings

Source: SwissRe forestry presentation (agriinsurance conference in Istambul 2018)

The main risks that are covered by standard forestry “damage-base” insurance is fire, lightening and windstorm. Additionally, hail, ice, snow, flood and earthquake can be insured. Pests & diseases are main exceptions from the coverage but can be additionally indirectly insured via parametric insurance if there is strong correlation between the weather factor and the occurrence of higher pest populations and the spread of diseases.

There are several approaches to assessing the sum insured:

  • Establish a value of the timber per ha. This should reflect the tree species, age & yield class.
  • Cost approach. The total costs actually incurred to date for the establishment and maintenance of the forest (in the case of very young forest stands)
  • The purchase value of a forest stand. It values a forest at the value at which it would be sold if it were harvested at that time, e.g. stumpage method or fair value (standard IFRS 13)
  • Simply define (first) loss limits per m3 or ha. It is agreed that in the case of a loss the forest owner gets a maximum or fixed amount per m3 timber. Advantage: fast pay-out after a loss event.

Parametric forest insurance

Hurricane and forest fire risks can also be insured with parametric policies. Storm data are usually provided in the form of wind speed maps by independent private data providers. Based on this, the insured area will be divided into different speed zones. For each speed zone, a certain fixed indemnity is determined according to the insurance contract.

Regarding parametric fire insurance, data on burned-out areas can be provided from satellites (MODIS, Sentinel, etc.), based on the actual value of the insurance index is determined. The trigger for this policy is the minimum burn-out area.

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Creating confidence in livestock production and supply-chain

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The livestock supply-chain is one of the three major concerns and areas of activity of the Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), aimed at increasing resilience in respect of threats and crises that affect agriculture, food and nutrition.

Epizootics are the global concern

So called epizootics – animal diseases – are of more and more concern not only for the farming society, but also for whole countries and regions, as they even can cause problems to human health. Therefore, this topic has become part of the general food protection policy.

The need to fight against animal diseases at global level led to the creation of the Office International des Epizooties through the international Agreement signed on January 25th, 1924. In May 2003, the Office became the World Organization for Animal Health, but kept its historical acronym OIE.

One of the main missions of the OIE is to collect information from its member countries on the presence and distribution of animal diseases and the methods used to control them, the purpose being to avoid the spread of epizootic diseases at international level.

At the moment 16 diseases are monitored monthly and contained in the o called OIE List A, namely:

  • Foot and mouth disease
  • Swine vesicular disease
  • Peste des petits ruminants
  • Lumpy skin disease
  • Bluetongue
  • African horse sickness
  • Classical swine fever
  • Newcastle disease
  • Vesicular stomatitis
  • Rinderpest
  • Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia
  • Rift Valley fever
  • Sheep pox and goat pox
  • African swine fever (ASF)
  • Highly pathogenic avian influenza

These are classified as “Transmissible diseases that have the potential for very serious and rapid spread, irrespective of national borders, that are of serious socio-economic or public health consequence and that are of major importance in the international trade of animals and animal products.”

Development of African Swine Fever and avian influenza during last decade

The best-known epidemics, that are treated in plenty of mass media, are African Swine Fever and Avian Influenza (“Bird Flue”). For example, a massive outbreak in China wiped out at least 40% of China’s pigs in 2019. In some countries of Central and Eastern Europe ASF has been present since 2014 and is not over yet, as the human factor and the presence of infected wild boars spread this disease significantly.

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs, usually deadly. No vaccine exists to combat this virus. It does not affect humans nor does it affect other animal species other than pigs and wild boars. It can be transmitted either via direct animal contact or via dissemination of contaminated food (e.g. sausages or uncooked meat).

The ASF virus spread to Europe for the first time in 2007 through the Trans Caucasus Countries and the Russian Federation. The next massive outbreak occurred in 2014 affecting Russia, Ukraine and Baltic countries and is lasting until now and moving to the West of Europe.

Dynamics of number of ASF on farms in some countries of Europe (data from the EU Animal Disease Notification System).

20142015201620172018201920202021(till Feb.21)
Bulgaria––––14419–
Estonia–18613––––
Greece––––––1–
Italy40162317101––
Latvia3210381013–
Lithuania613193051193–
Moldova––––––2–
Poland21208110948103–
Serbia–––––18161
Romania–––2116317241053112
Slovakia–––––1117–
Ukraine–––12410542231

In addition to the cases mentioned above, ASF was found in wild boars in Germany, Belgium, Hungary and Czechia.

Avian Influenza (AI) or “Bird Flu” is a highly contagious viral infection which can affect all species of birds and can manifest itself in different ways depending mainly on the ability of the virus to cause disease (pathogenicity) and on the species affected.

Influenza infections in birds are divided into two groups based on their pathogenicity:

  • Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI): spreads rapidly causing serious disease with high mortality (up to 100% within 48 hours) in most poultry species (except domestic waterfowl)
  • Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI): causing generally a mild disease, may easily go undetected

While the risk from Asian H5N1 is low for most people, sporadic human infections with Asian H5N1 virus have occurred in some Asian countries. Most human infections with Asian H5N1 viruses in other countries have occurred after prolonged and close contact with infected sick or dead birds.

We can witness a new wave of Avian Influenza in Europe, which started at the end of December 2019 in the Netherlands and Poland and spread for the next 12-15 months over whole Europe.

Dynamics of spread can be seen on the pictures below (data from EU Animal Disease Notification System):

Dec 19 – Sep 20 Oct 20 – Dec 2020 Jan 21 – Feb 21

Risks in supply-chain and how they are managed

Usually, if an epizootic disease occurs in a part of the farm’s premises, all animals of the farm will die or will be slaughtered upon order by the state authorities. It leads to the total loss of animals on a farm. Moreover, besides material damage related to animals, the farm suffers losses caused by the interruption of activities, as it takes time to slaughter, transport and utilize animals, disinfect premises and keep them closed for enforced quarantine time (3-12 months), then implement an additional 1-3 month testing period and fill in the full production cycle. Therefore, business interruption loss of gross profit can be a much more substantial loss than just the loss of culled livestock.

Besides the risk of having the virus inside the farm, there is also the risk of government restrictions for animal transportation, if the farm is trapped into a risk control or surveillance zone, which can reach a radius of up to 20 km from the epicenter of the outbreak.

In addition, according to EU legislation, there is special zoning of infected areas, where additional limitations are imposed and its derogation requires some compliance with veterinary rules, if the farm wants to proceed transporting live pigs to non-affected areas of the same country or of another EU member state. Such necessary measures can lead to additional increased cost of working for a long period of time.

It can be said that in respect of epizootic scenarios slaughterhouses and meat processors are not the less vulnerable. On the one hand they are dependent on stable supply of live pigs or fresh meat, and on the other hand export markets can be unexpectedly closed as long as epizootics occur in the country where they are located. The latest story of this sort happened in Germany, when the Chinese government immediately closed the border for producers of German pork after the first infected wild boar was found on German territory. In terms of disruption of the supply-chain, the main sources of risk of a slaughterhouse and a meat processor are as follows:

  • Virus found on premises of a slaughterhouse or a meat processor.
  • Virus found on premises of a farming supplier.
  • A large number of farming suppliers are trapped in control or surveillance zones, which leads to constraints in the movements of finishers for slaughter and further processing.
  • The slaughterhouse or meat processor is trapped in control or surveillance zones.

Moreover, events associated with epizootic outbreaks can make farmers or slaughterhouses liable to compensate claims, brought against them as consequence of the 3rd party’s product recall and product contamination costs and direct damage to the contingents.

In order to prevent the spread of epizootic diseases and to compensate for the financial consequences of events occurred, governments deploy legislation in relation to:

  • basics of strict bio-security measures on farms;
  • measures taken by authorities regarding the destruction of affected or suspected animals and the prevention of further spread of the disease;
  • long-term zoning in order to regulate movement of livestock and meat products;
  • financial compensation for the value of killed and culled animals.

On a microlevel, the farmers and meat processors implement special bio-security audits, put additional investments into the improvement of bio-protection and prevention measures against the occurrence of diseases on farm premises, develop business continuity plans in order to be ready to react and modify their business model in the event of a disease. Based on the GrECo Food&Agri practice, our cooperation with farmers and breeders’ associations in several countries, we count about 100 factors of bio-security that can be analyzed and afterwards implemented in order to reduce this risk.

Insurance solutions to mitigate financial losses

The ultimate parachute each livestock breeder and meat processor should definitely possess is a livestock insurance policy. We can witness that even the modern farms, that invested a lot in biosecurity, have suffered the emergence of African swine fever or bird flu on their grounds.

When designing a livestock insurance program, one should take into account the following:

  • we need to avoid an overlap with government compensation of the value of the killed and culled livestock, which is usually financed by authorities (e.g. in EU);
  • on the other hand, in many countries the government usually does not fully compensate 100% of animal value;
  • for vertically integrated meat producers, it is recommended to consider business interruption insurance coverage rather than pure material damage;
  • meat processors can be offered a livestock contingency BI program, which covers loss of gross profit as a result of disruption of livestock supply.

GrECo works with up to 20 international markets who can offer standard or bespoke livestock insurance solutions. Unfortunately, livestock material damage coverage is getting harder and harder to be placed, as insurers’ appetites in respect of CEE/SEE regions are quite low. Insurance and reinsurance companies are aware of the ongoing epizootic situation in this area, especially regarding ASF and HPAI. However, some innovative solutions and schemes have been developed by our Food&Agri practice to partially overcome such challenges. One should also not forget that any insurance of exposed risks should go alongside with risk management services consisting of bio-security audits and business continuity plans, that can be provided by our special GrECo Risk engineering department.

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