Given the fluidity of the US–Iran situation, companies should prepare multiple, distinct scenarios.
Read the full introduction to our series of articles on the Middle East conflict .
Early-Stage Uncertainty and Market Sentiment
As geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran intensify, companies across Central, Southern and Eastern Europe must prepare for a period of elevated uncertainty. The conflict’s trajectory remains unpredictable and may shift rapidly – from limited hostilities to a prolonged confrontation or even a broader regional escalation involving key Middle Eastern actors.
In this environment, structured scenario planning and business continuity management (BCM) become essential tools for protecting operations, people, and financial performance. Below we outline a practical framework for CSEE businesses to anticipate impacts, strengthen resilience, and apply lessons from previous crises.
Building Scenarios in an Unpredictable Environment
Learning from Past Crises: Structured Post-Loss Analysis
Companies should adopt a structured approach to learning from previous shocks whether the Ukraine conflict, COVID-19 disruptions, or earlier Middle Eastern crises.
Preparing for What Comes Next
“Uncertainty in the Middle East will likely persist, and may intensify, in the coming weeks or months. Proactive scenario planning and robust business continuity strategies offer not just protection, but competitive advantage. Organisations that prepare early, diversify risks, and learn systematically from past disruptions will be better placed to navigate whatever comes next.” Johannes Vogl, General Manager, GrECo Risk Engineering.
Johannes Vogl
General Manager GrECo Risk Engineering
T +43 5 04 04 – 160
