Paul Johannes Spittau, Head of Group Carrier Relations and Mediation at GrECo International, speaks with George Zafiriou, General Manager at GrECo Hellas, about the global forces reshaping risk in Greece; from geopolitics and energy security to supply-chain regionalisation, regulation and the 2027 renewal cycle.
The big picture: global forces that matter most (2026–2030)
Spittau: Which global megatrends will be most critical for Greece between 2026 and 2030?
Zafiriou: Looking ahead, geopolitics and sanctions will be the most influential force for Greece, given our location near volatile regions and our central role in global shipping. This means shifts in trade routes, conflicts and their possible effects on tourism, and regulatory changes can quickly impact operations and the insurance market. Energy security comes next, as Greece is developing into a regional hub for LNG and renewables, with new natural gas drilling bringing investment and evolving risks around infrastructure and operations. Finally, supply-chain regionalisation is putting Greece on the map as a logistics gateway to Southeast Europe, increasing cross-border activity and the need for complex multinational insurance solutions.
Spittau: What are the top three major country-specific factors that matter most for Greece and why?
Zafiriou: First isGreece’s role as an emerging energy and logistics hub for Europe which is driving demand for large-scale and technically complex insurance solutions, particularly in energy and marine.
Second, Greek shipping is among the largest fleets globally and it is highly affected by geopolitical shifts, sanctions and trade disruptions, increasing the need for specialised expertise. Third, while the economy continues to recover, Greece remains exposed to external shocks -especially sensitive for the substantial tourism industry- and is characterised by a large SME base and comparatively low insurance penetration.
Investment shifts reshaping risk
Spittau: Which sectors in Greece are seeing increased investment due to reshoring, diversification or changes in regional economic alliances?
Zafiriou: Energy stands out, with Liquefied Natural Gas, renewables and interconnectors drawing investment as Europe aims for energy independence. This is fuelling demand for technical insurance solutions, covering construction, operations, cyber, and sometimes political risk.
Logistics and transport are also key, with regionalisation boosting investment in ports, hubs, and corridors linking Southeast to Central Europe. That’s driving up demand for marine, cargo, and infrastructure covers, plus multinational programme design for growing clients.
Lastly, manufacturing and light industry are moving closer to European markets, so we’re seeing more need for property, business interruption, and supply-chain risk solutions, especially among mid-sized firms.
Taken together, these investment flows are driving demand for marine cargo and transport solutions, increased focus on political risk and trade disruption, more contingent business interruption, and growing trade credit covers. Success increasingly relies on the client’s data quality and transparency.
Sanctions, energy policy and investment screening
Spittau: Which regulatory or policy developments are having the greatest impact on companies operating in Greece?
Zafiriou: EU sanctions and export controls are the main drivers right now, especially for Greece given its involvement in shipping, energy and cross-border trade. Changes to Russia-related sanctions are pushing up compliance and counterparty checks, which often disrupt payments and contracts, particularly in the marine and energy sectors.
Energy policy is having a big impact, too. Greece’s updated energy plan and EU reforms are fast-tracking renewables and offshore wind, influencing everything from permits to how risks are managed during construction and operations.
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is also changing the game for importers and manufacturers tied to carbon-heavy goods. It means more reporting and supplier data checks, making carbon and customs rules central to cost and risk management. Lastly, Greece’s new investment screening law brings extra notification and review for deals in sensitive sectors like energy, tech and logistics, affecting how investments are planned and timed.
Broker market dynamics: from placement to advisory, and the gaps clients feel
Spittau: How are brokers, insurers and reinsurers responding to increasingly globalised and politicised exposures?
Zafiriou: Brokers are stepping up, offering more advice on sanctions, supply-chain issues and international exposures. This means more risk advisory and better coordination for multinational programmes.
While capacity is, mostly, ample and pricing has definitely moved into a soft(er) market, insurers are getting pickier on particular exposures, tightening terms and focusing on sanctions, supply chains and aggregation risks, especially in marine and energy. Technical underwriting is still key for complex risks.
Reinsurers are setting the tone for pricing and capacity, taking a cautious approach to geopolitical and catastrophe risks and increasingly using structured solutions.
Spittau: Where do you see the biggest service gaps today?
Zafiriou: The biggest gap is still political risk and sanctions advisory. Given Greece’s exposure across shipping, energy and cross-border trade, the local market does not consistently offer forward-looking political risk assessment or proactive sanctions guidance. Clients are often relying on fragmented input or external providers.
Supply-chain mapping and stress testing are still emerging, often leaving contingent BI and disruption exposures overlooked. Also, as Greek clients expand regionally, inconsistent multinational programme structuring can cause inefficiencies and compliance gaps.
Lastly, while trade credit is on the rise, advisory support is patchy, so integrating credit insurance into wider risk strategy could better protect a company’s cash flow in new markets.
What to expect in 2027 and how to prepare now
Spittau: Looking ahead to the 2027 renewal cycle, what changes do you anticipate for political risk, credit, marine cargo and global property programmes?
Zafiriou: Political risk is set to remain tricky, with flat to modestly higher pricing, selective capacity and tighter territorial limits in riskier regions, plus a greater need for detailed exposure and sanctions data. Credit risk should see stable or slightly softer pricing for strong portfolios, but with stricter buyer limits and sharper segmentation. Marine cargo stays competitive, though there’ll be close scrutiny for war-risk areas and exposures. For global property, non-cat risks are still attractively priced, but catastrophe-prone Greek sites and BI-heavy programmes will undergo technical underwriting, making robust data and modelling crucial. Ultimately, renewals are competitive, but success hinges on exposure transparency, data quality and geopolitical footprint.
Spittau: What three steps should companies take now to be ready for renewals?Zafiriou: First, upgrade underwriting data and transparency, values, BI, supply chains, trade routes and counterparties, because better submissions typically translate into better pricing, capacity and terms. Second, map geopolitical and territorial exposures early, including sanctions-sensitive trade and critical suppliers, and adjust programme structure accordingly. Third, engage early to stress-test limits, retentions and multinational programme design so there are no last-minute capacity surprises.
Paul Johannes Spittau
Head of Group Carrier Relations & Insurance Mediation
T +43 664 537 17 42
George Zafiriou
General Manager
GrECo Hellas
T +30 210 6196525
