Demographic decline and talent outflows are turning people issues into hard business risk in Serbia. Paul Johannes Spittau, Head of Group Carrier Relations and Mediation at GrECo International, talks to Dušanka Talić, General Manager at GrECo Serbia, about what that means for employers and for insurance pricing, cover and claims.
Key Social Forces, 2026–2030
Spittau: Which social forces do you expect to become most critical between 2026 and 2030?
Talić: Over the last few years, Serbia has undergone huge social change, and that trend is expected to continue throughout the rest of the decade. According to the World Bank, the country ranks thirteenth in the world in terms of population decline; policymakers are attempting to address this issue but are having limited success.
Spittau: Which three country‑specific drivers stand out, why are they intensifying now, and which industries or organisational functions are most exposed?
Talić: Due to an aging population and the emigration of younger generations, coupled with the limited capacity of society to adapt to an evolving socio‑economic environment, population‑related challenges in Serbia are expected to persist and intensify over the next five years. The most critical social forces shaping this trajectory include continued demographic decline, sustained workforce emigration, and rising employee wellbeing expectations. Together, these dynamics carry significant implications for labour‑market stability, economic competitiveness, and the country’s long‑term social and developmental outlook.
Workforce, Policy, and Economic Risk
Spittau: How are today’s labour market trends, political conditions, and economic pressures reshaping corporate risk profiles?
Talić: Labour shortages, regulatory developments, and inflationary pressures are significantly influencing the insurance and insurance‑intermediary business in Serbia. Companies are operating with reduced workforce capacity and competing for skilled labour by offering higher wages and enhanced benefits, substantially increasing labour costs. At the same time, Serbia’s long‑term goal of joining the European Union is driving expansion of regulatory requirements and more complex compliance obligations for employers. These developments are further complicating business operations, particularly in the areas of labour relations and data protection.
Spittau: What does this mean for insurance pricing, claims patterns, capacity, and policy wordings linked to people‑related risk?
Talić: These trends are reshaping the insurance sector, driving upward pressure on pricing and contributing to more frequent and complex claims, particularly in health and liability. As a result, underwriting practices are becoming more disciplined, while policy wordings are increasingly precise – especially regarding workforce‑related triggers and exclusions. In this evolving environment, the role of the insurance broker is critical to ensuring that both clients and insurers can operate effectively while managing a growing set of complex compliance‑related risks.
Shifts in Talent and Investment and Their Significance
Spittau: Which sectors are likely to see increased investment due to talent shortages, automation pressures, or shifts in labour mobility?
Talić: Investment is increasingly concentrated in IT, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing, driven by rising automation demands and persistent talent constraints. At the same time, despite recent political challenges, Serbia continues to be regarded as an attractive destination for foreign investors. This perception is supported by comparatively lower labour costs and a generally favourable business environment, not only in high‑growth sectors such as IT and renewables, but also across services and transportation industries.
Spittau: How is this affecting risk placement, employee benefits demand, and new insurance requirements?
Talić: The health insurance market is developing and adapting to the previously mentioned trends under the strong influence of international companies, particularly those in the IT sector. These employers are significantly shaping the voluntary health insurance segment, where comprehensive private health coverage for employees as well as their family members has become so widespread that it is effectively regarded as a standard expectation. In recent years, domestic employers have increasingly begun to follow this trend in order to remain competitive with foreign companies, especially given the constraints of the labour market and the persistent shortage of skilled workers.
Workforce Data and Resilience Indicators
Spittau: Which types of people‑risk data are being most rewarded by insurers when structuring programmes?
Talić: Insurers are increasingly rewarding companies that can provide structured and consistent workforce data. The most relevant indicators include absenteeism trends, claims history, and workforce age structure. There is also a gradual shift toward recognising wellbeing metrics and basic HR analytics in underwriting discussions. Companies that demonstrate a more proactive and data-driven approach to people risk tend to achieve more favourable terms.
Event to Insight
Spittau: What were the main operational impacts of the recent labour shortage in construction and logistics, and which response strategies worked best?
Talić: The recent labour shortage in construction and logistics affected companies of all sizes, but especially those in associated with major infrastructure and highway projects. The shortage was driven mainly by emigration and workforce instability. Importing foreign labour only partly addressed the issue. Most responses were reactive: hiring standards were lowered, oversight weakened, and project management became less consistent. This led to project delays, higher labour costs, and more work-related incidents and injuries, raising operational costs across the sector.
Spittau: What three changes should companies now prioritise to strengthen resilience?
Talić: Looking ahead, companies should prioritise stronger workforce‑retention and education strategies, expand investment in safety and skills training, and improve the integration of workforce data into risk management and insurance planning. Only by adapting effectively to this new environment will employers be able to reduce internal risks and secure adequate insurance coverage for their business models in the years to come.
Paul Johannes Spittau
Head of Group Carrier Relations & Insurance Mediation
T +43 664 537 17 42
Dušanka Talić
General Manager
GrECo Serbia
T +381 11 4040 630
